Holding Fire on Google vs. China

In the Hutong

The Semi-Sabbatical Beings

1243 hrs.

A lot of excellent thinking - and a lot of polemic tripe - has been written in response to Google uberkounsel David Drummond's blog post last week announcing Google's intention to stop filtering Google.cn content and possibly leave China altogether. 

There is much in the way of speculation and precious little in the way of information bubbling to the surface right now, and rather than simply add to the froth, I'm going to spend some time doing some homework before discussing them.

In the meantime, my thoughts are with the people at Google China, and my hopes that despite the uncertainty that must surround them every day that they can still enjoy their coming Chinese New Year holidays.

Comments

[stuart]

I have an email in my drafts folder asking when you were going to weigh in, David.

Alongside the likes of James Fallows you're one of the more sober commenters that I look to for a little reassurance and insight on such matters (having been unable to resist the urge to 'add to the froth' myself).

One question I would like to ask is how you see the future of foreign companies in China (and not exclusively the tech firms) in light of recent events? Of course there won't be a mass exodus anytime soon, but how certain can organizations be that their operations have not already been compromised? My own answer to that would be: if you're a large concern that has information that would be useful to a Chinese competitor or interesting to the Chinese government, then it's already happened.

The next question would be: what's to be done about it? And I don't have anything resembling an answer to that one.

I suppose I have more of a 'stormy weather approaching' than 'blue skies ahead' outlook on this, but I sense that you're an optimist by nature. If so, from where do you summon the confidence that all will be well and that China will become a more accommodating and secure place for foreign business?

To my inexpert eye, there seems to be an inverse relationship between China's clout on the world stage and her government's willingness to play fair or demonstrate moral responsibility.

Yeah, I know - that's half a dozen questions, not one. But it's a cloudy picture and I'm trying to see through the fog.

Looking forward to your considered take on this when it arrives.

[David]

Stuart, I didn't think your entry was froth at all. I am humbled you would put me and James Fallows in the same sentence, much less in the same category. It gives me a high standard for which to shoot.

There is a post on this in the works, but the Reader's Digest answer is this:

Attitudes about - and conditions for - foreign companies in China are much different today than they were thirty, twenty, or even ten years ago. This is understandable: the challenges facing China today are different, and the nation has three decades of post-revolutionary experience with the promise and reality of what foreign companies can really offer China.

These attitudes and conditions have changed faster than most foreign corporate decision-makers are able or prepared to understand, much less respond to. Little wonder, then, that some have experienced some unpleasant wake-up calls. Further, there are more than a few companies who have come to China with expectations bordering on entitlement, and their behavior here has reflected that.

It is easy to lose sight of the fact that for every Google, there is a General Motors, not only doing well in China but surviving globally because of the success they have cultivated here. The road has not been easy, and it is not getting easier, but somehow GM (and hundreds of companies like it) has managed to handle the challenge.

My optimism is rooted not in some belief in a Cloud Cuckoo Land where doing business in China - or anywhere in Asia, Europe, or Latin America - will suddenly become as simple as doing business in Boston or San Francisco. Rather, it is rooted in three factors: two decades of experience here; an appreciation of the larger forces at work in China; and a belief in the historically-proven ability of great merchants to overcome the most daunting barriers twixt themselves and opportunity.

There is much more behind these answers, and I expect to expand upon them fully outside of comments. But I think it is essential to make this the subject of a discussion rather than a topic for Hyde Park soapbox polemics on either side. I respect and appreciate your readiness to make this a discussion.

[stuart]

Thanks, David.

I'll sleep a little easier tonight.

As ever, looking forward to the next installment - whatever the topic.

[stuart]

James McGregor just tweeted (twitted?) this news about China's insistence that Google be off-topic at DAVOS:

http://tinyurl.com/yelc7k6

I find this one of the more troubling trends of China's ascendancy: the taking of important, relevant, and topical issues off the table, thereby giving global forums a dose of its home-grown authoritarian policy on discourse.

Appeasing Beijing at moments of childish obstinacy that certain topics are not for debate cannot possibly be the way forward. I think this is a very bad sign.

What would they have done if Google had been on the agenda for discussion? Refused to attend? Walked out of the room?