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    July 11, 2008

    Funny, I thought it was a new kind of herb...

    In the Hutong

    One month to go

    2039 hrs.

    There are a lot of terms people use that they do not really understand, and I am as guilty of that as anyone out there. I didn't understand "soft power" until I read Joseph Nye's book. I had no clue about social networking until I actually started doing it.

    And even though I deal very rarely with finance, there have been two occasions when I've used the phrase "Basel II requirements" in a conversation about Chinese banking when I realized I only understood a single specific piece (the minimum capital requirement) of the global standards by which banks are increasingly judged. I kept smiling, but I broke into a cold sweat.

    You know that feeling, right? That feeling like you are walking happily across a frozen lake, and then you wake from your reverie to realize that you are on thin ice, that you have walked the conversation right up to - and sometimes beyond - your real level of knowledge. And you are about to be exposed for the pretentious idiot that you are for having had the conversation in the first place.

    Okay, well, maybe you don't. But I've felt it, and I hate it. Once my internal baloney alarm kicks in, there are only two solutions: never, ever, go there again; or set about learning more.

    So I went hunting, and I found this juicy little pdf at the Bank for International Settlements website - the full text of Basel II: International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards Revised Framework - Comprehensive Version. At 347 pages of dry text, it was probably more than I needed, but being the finance tyro that I am I kind of get a kick out of reading it. I feel like I'm a fly on the wall at a meeting of central bankers. The wikipedia entry was a little too light on detail anyway.

    June 29, 2008

    Responsa: Thunder out of China

    Deep under China World Trade Center

    Is it me, or is this town getting...quieter?
    1257 hrs.

    In my recent post reviewing Thunder Out of China, a work I believe belongs on the history reading list of anyone interested in understanding modern China, I incorrectly implied that Theodore White was the sole author of the work. I failed to point out that Annalee W. Jacoby was the work's co-author and was (in my opinion) instrumental in setting the balanced tone for the book's critique of Chiang Kai-shek. This was not only careless on my part, it was dumb: Ms. Jacoby's life could be the subject of at least a movie, if not a miniseries. 

    I am indebted to Professor Jeffrey Wasserstrom at the University of California, Irvine, not only for pointing out my omission, but for doing it with far more collegiality and professionalism than my elementary mistake deserved. Dr. Wasserstrom contributes to the excellent collaborative blog The China Beat, which we have added to our Heroes of the People list.

    One of the reasons this book is important is that it helps balance a bit the effects of America's wartime and Cold War near-canonization of Chiang. Any objective reading of modern Chinese history will find few true heroes among the leaders on either side, yet while The Great Helmsman has been thoroughly muckraked, The Generalissimo has been denied the scrutiny of a scholarly iconoclast. Until that changes, the more balanced contemporary accounts are all the more important to keep on our collective reading lists. 

    June 08, 2008

    Teddy White and Modern China

    Jingshun Road, Bridge on the River Wenyu

    Give a man a car, he thinks he’s Michael Schumacher

    1426 hrs.


    Whether in writing or over an adult beverage, at some point or another each of us who live in, study, or frequently deal with China find ourselves in a conversation that focuses on China’s faults. I have heard these conversations take tones that range from the respectful to the patronizing, and from people who have motives ranging from a genuine desire to build a better China to those who seem to have made a hobby of gratuitious panda-slugging. 


    The common thread running through each of these conversations is a focus on things as they are, and usually how they compare to some other place. They are rarely infused with a perspective on China’s own history and conditions. 


    In the passion of such moments remarkable things are said, but one thing I hear with numbing regularity from people who have never lived in Asia is the suggestion that perhaps China would have been better off under the Guomindang, or KMT. The sole support offered to this argument is usually someone saying “after all, look at Taiwan.”


    The Last Warlord


    Regardless of where one might fall in one’s leanings on that issue, such an assertion begs for some context, and I usually recommend Theodore “Teddy” White’s seminal 1946 book Thunder Out of China. Not only did White write without the benefit of the hindsight we have, he did so before the Red Scare and the McCarthy hearings forever changed the nature of the debate over communism and its alternatives. 


    White did, however, write with the benefit of years in China dealing with and around the Nanjing (later Chongqing) government. He had the kind of access granted to a reporter working for a publisher - Henry Luce - who was among Chiang Kai-Shek’s most vocal and dedicated overseas supporters. White’s insights are biting.


    While he must have been tempted to use the power of his pen to vilify Chiang, White strives (and occasionally struggles) to retain a journalists objectivity. His descriptions make clear that while Chiang had clearly cobbled together a polity of sorts, China even before World War II was not so much a nation as a loosely unified confederation of local warlords and special interests. Herding such a band of cats could not have been simple. Chiang’s first mistake, in White’s view, was that he saw himself and the tentative order he imposed as the only viable solution for China.  


    If history - both Western and Eastern - has proven anything, it is that hubris bordering on a messiah complex is not a formula for successful leadership, and White shows Chiang a man blinded by his indomitable self-confidence. 


    The Generalissimo believed he knew China better than the Americans. Granting that most Americans in China offered little, those that offered genuine insight - the Army’s General Joseph Stillwell and the State Department’s Jack Service among them - were systematically ignored, then banished. 


    Worse, White suggests that Chiang believed that he knew China better than any other person in China. As events bore out, in this he was patently - and fatally - wrong.


    Caught in a Landslide


    What pervades White’s descriptions of Chiang and his government is a view of a man whose ability to govern had been overtaken by events - not just the war, but the pace of change inside of China. 


    Indeed, through the narrative we see a Chiang who was so overwhelmed by the speed and scale of China’s own internal developments that he had no idea that the political ideas and social programs formed in the crucible of the 1911 revolution were, a mere thirty years later, obsolete. White subtly reminds us that in the course of two decades Chaing himself had migrated the breadth of China’s political spectrum, starting as a leftist revolutionary and ending as a conservative on China’s far right, as clear an indicator as any that he had not only lost political initiative, he had also lost touch with the country. 


    Nobody living in China today - or even visiting periodically - can help but sympathize with Chiang’s plight. Keeping ahead of the pace of change in China is a brutal race for any government, party, agency, bureaucrat - or merchant. But to govern at all demands a means of governing that is attuned to change, and White paints a picture of a government in pre-revolutionary China that had ossified some years before. 


    Chiang lost, to use a phrase from von Clausewitz, his fingerspitzengefuhl, his finger-tip feel for the actual situation on the ground, and as a result presided over a bureaucratic apparatus that was incapable of either caring for the welfare of the Chinese people, holding his coalition together, or fighting the Japanese, much less all three at once.


    A Picture in Time


    Regardless of where you stand on the matter of the Chinese Revolution, you will probably agree that among the great tragedies of the millennial changes that began in 1911 was the long line of missed opportunities for a more harmonious ending than the national bifurcation that is still called “the Wound of History.” 


    More vocally than any other foreigner of his era, Teddy White yearned for a unified China that took care of its people. Armed with a belief in that future, he wrote Thunder Out of China as a witness to the events that set China on its current course, and his words deliver insights into the national soul of China that after 62 years have lost none of their edge. 

    January 31, 2008

    A Wise Word about 210 Million Internet Users

    In the Hutong
    Downloading music
    2126 hrs.

    Donald DePalma, author of Business Without Borders: A Strategic Guide to Global Marketing puts CNNIC's recent report on China's Internet market into perspective in an article on Chief Marketer.

    He introduces a compelling concept he calls the Online GDP, which basically translates to the buying power of the online population.

    According to DePalma, China's 210 million Internet users account for only 1.1% of the world's online GDP. He doesn't give us enough information to check his figures, so it is hard to judge the validity of his claim.

    Let us assume for a moment, however, that what he says is true. His point is simply this - don't make a decision about localizing for a market based on the number of people it has, but based on its buying power. All of which is easy to understand and hard to dispute.

    Or is it?

    I have a couple of problems with using the e-GDP as the sole means to evaluate whether it makes sense to come to China.

    The e-GDP figure is static. What we need to understand the value of a given market is both that figure AND its rate of growth. I would bet, given the fact that China's population is slowly aging and becoming more prosperous as it expands AND that China's overall GDP continues to grow at double-digit rates, that the growth rate in China's e-GDP is fairly spectacular compared to other markets. At some point, that 1.1% is going to grow into something much larger.

    The e-GDP figure assumes that Chinese users confer the same priority on all goods - or, more correctly, it fails to take into account that some goods and services are better sold online in China.

    Similarly, the e-GDP figure does not tell you how badly advertisers on your site want to reach online users in China.

    Finally, the e-GDP does not give an idea of what percentage of a country's overall GDP is represented by Internet users. In other words, if you are already IN China and looking to identify places where a certain group of buyers goes, an overall figure is unhelpful.

    I like DePalma's analysis, but I think he (and we) need to dig deeper. To rush to China purely on the basis of 210 million users is madness. But to stay away on the basis of a snapshot of the market runs the risk of missing very real opportunities.

    December 27, 2007

    Maybe the difference is Star Trek

    In the Hutong
    Damn if winter isn't finally here
    2104 hrs.

    In June of this year, Wil Wheaton, who played the teenage nerd-cum-Starfleet officer Wesley Crusher in the science-fiction television series Star Trek: The Next Generation, spoke at a ceremony to induct the late Star Trek creator Gene Roddenberry into the Science Fiction hall of fame.

    Whatever your personal feelings about Wil, Wesley, Star Trek, or the citizens of Trek Nation, you have to give credit to Wheaton for hitting what made Star Trek the single most successful science fiction franchise ever (40 years, 11 motion pictures, 5 separate TV shows, and so many books, magazines, stories, conventions, clubs, and fans that they defy counting).

    Ensign Crusher Speaks

    What struck me was how he captured both the lure and the powerful socio-political value of science fiction as a genre:

    "There are countless examples here of the real power that science fiction has to address current events in a way that's safe and acceptable for most audiences, while speaking very seriously about them to those who look beyond the spaceships and rayguns to the ideas behind the stories. Whether it was written one hundred years ago or just published last month, science fiction can give us warnings about the future, hope for the future, or just blissful escape into the future, visiting fantastic worlds that are light-years away – and as close as our bookshelves and televisions."

    He then put the 1966 premiere of the original show into its historical context - a nation falling deeper into a war it didn't understand, locked with another rival in a staredown contest with civilization at stake, while the country tore itself apart at home. He then explained what the show did - something the suits at NBC did not expect:

    It wasn't a particularly optimistic period for our nation, and there wasn't all that much going on to feel good about. Then, on September 8, 1966, a new show debuted. The network thought they were buying ‘Wagon Train to the stars,' but just two commercial breaks into the show, it was clear that this was something new and different. As episodes aired over the following weeks and months, it was undeniable that this show, set in the future but reflecting so much of the contemporary world, was breaking new ground each week. Like all great science fiction, it held up a mirror and showed us our failings and triumphs – not by beating us over the head with a message, but by making that message easy enough to discover for those who cared to see it. Star Trek dared to do this during an incredibly turbulent time, when it was risky to even acknowledge that the mirror existed, much less hold it up on network television.


    Popular science fiction in America found its birth during the nation's most desperate hour - the Great Depression - and has seemed to be most robust when the times have been the most confusing. The genre is infused not so much by powerful optimism as it is a literary haven allowing us to ponder our fears without wallowing in them. What comes out is a belief that the future is ours to create.

    Boldly Going

    As an avid fan of science fiction and China, it has been a lot of fun watching the growth of Chinese science fiction. There are a half-dozen magazines, probably a half-million hardcore fans, and a growing interest in the genre.

    But political overtones are tough to avoid, and a lot of science fiction is a allegorical social critique. In "Sci-Fi Ascendant" in the September 2006 edition of Seed magazine, Mara Hvistendahl wrote:

    But this tendency to propose new ways of living—what James Gunn, director of the Center for the Study of Science Fiction at the University of Kansas, calls an "inherent critique of society"—means that the genre's position could still be somewhat tenuous in China. Certain subject matter is off-limits; one of Gunn's novels was translated into Chinese but couldn't be published because it dealt with student protests. The censors have reason to be wary: Much of Chinese science fiction has been inspired by political events, from the Cultural Revolution to the 1978 Democracy Wall to the Tiananmen Square protests.

    None of which means that the growth of science fiction in China will slow - on the contrary, I suspect writers will simply use more care in their words. If the Science Fiction World website and the links from it are any indication, there is a lot going on.

    But unlike the US, what I suspect will drive interest in science fiction in China will not be film or television, but games.

    If you've ever played a game - I mean, really played it to the point where it begins to intrude on the edges of your reality - you find that it begs to be explored in other ways. Books, stories, fan fiction, illustrations, manga, and even the funky new art of machinima (stories told in the context of a game, and recorded as animated shorts - check out Red vs. Blue) grow from such immersion, and have this remarkable tendency to lead one off to explore other areas of "speculative fiction."

    Watch what happens when Blizzard drops World of Starcraft II into the gaming world in the coming months. I suspect that will bump Chinese science fiction up another notch.

    I don't see the next Star Trek movie making it into China, though. Here in China, the underlying messages of Trek, Star Wars, and much of the western science fiction canon would likely be considered borderline subversive.

    November 21, 2007

    Cross-Post: A Lu Xun Archive

    In the Hutong 
    Better read than dead 
    2039 hrs.

    The good cadres over at Marxists.org have put together a decent archive of some of Zhou Shuren's (Lu Xun) works. It is not, of course, comprehensive: his literary legacy exceeds ten million words (figure 110 book-length works), and this collection tends toward the more radical of his writings, but the stories here are excellent.

    If you are new to the man eulogized as "the national soul" at his funeral in 1936, stop by and check out this collection. If you pick out one only, I recommend The True Story of Ah-Q, a short book-length work that is superb.

    They have additional sections of interest to non-Marxists interested in China (like me,) including Frank Glass,Li LisanLin BiaoLiu ShaoqiMao Zedong, and others.

    November 05, 2007

    Cross-post: Dell and the Wal-Mart Effect

    In the Hutong 
    Relieved to be out of October 
    1926 hrs.

    One of the reasons I review books here at Peking Review and not at some more established venue is my conviction that some books - or movies, or plays, or music, or art - cannot be reviewed on deadline. Or, more accurately, should not be reviewed on deadline.

    Simple fact: some works need to be fully absorbed - "grokked," to borrow a phrase from Robert Heinlein'sStranger in a Strange Land - before they can be fully understood and appreciated.

    I very rarely get feeling when I read a book about American business. But when I finished The Wal-Mart Effect, Charles Fishman's highly readable endoscopy of the infamous retail leviathan, I found myself unable to write a single word about it. So I passed it across the bed to the Party Secretary here in the Hutong, and I proceeded to meditate.

    That was about six weeks ago. And now it is grokked.

    Seeds of Destruction

    Not that there is anything particularly complex about The Wal-Mart Effect. It is a deeply researched, highly readable, straightforward journalistic examination of Wal*Mart and the effect it has had on the economy, its customers, its communities, and its vendors.

    Yet, despite what I thought was a highly balanced treatment of the subject, I walked away feeling like I had just read a modern tragedy. I haven't been able to figure out why. Now I think I know.

    Fishman ends the book with an imprecation, urging readers to call upon their solons and regulatory bureaucracies to write an entirely new book of laws to shackle this Beast from Arkansas and prevent it from doing a Godzilla on vast swathes of the US economy. Yet by the time he issues this call to arms, you are already left with the conclusion that it won't be necessary.

    What has made Wal-Mart successful, the book teaches us, will eventually kill - or at least cripple - the retailer.

    Wal-Mart has grown immense by promising low prices, every day. It has created a business that is structured - financially, operationally, and psychologically - toward the single purpose of driving prices on every item it carries to the absolute lowest level possible, and then going one level lower.

    All of which sounds great, until you begin to read about the compromises vendors are having to make to deliver that price. At some point in that spiral, something has to give, and all of the smart design and offshoring to Mexico or China will only get you so far. One is left with the unmistakable impression that if it ever comes down to a question of quality vs. price at Wal-Mart, the system inside the organization dictates that saving the extra nickel will win.

    Low Prices...Forever. Bwaahahahahahahahaha!

    The only problem with that for Wal-Mart is that it runs the risk of not only becoming the guarantor of low prices, but also gaining a reputation as a purveyor of the cheap. Say what you will about Americans, there are not many people in the world who will be happy trading in their hard-earned for a whole lot of inexpensive junk. Not, at least, when there are alternatives.

    That tends to build a pretty high wall that looks set to limit Wal-Mart's organic growth, and limits the cash hoard it can use to change its strategy or acquire a new growth engine. Wal-Mart is stuck with Always Low Prices.

    What will happen when Wal-Mart stops growing? When low prices aren't enough anymore? When competitors - in unreasonable defiance of economic logic - prove that people are willing to pay a little more for a noticeably better product and a more fulfilling buying experience?

    Ask our friends in Round Rock, Texas. Michael Dell pioneered the idea that good computers could be made cheap and sold cheap. He also found out - the hard way - that a lot of people in the world wanted more out of a computer than just a low price. Now he is trying to turn the ship around and take another tack, and he is discovering that simply changing the way you think about your business - much less the way you do it - is really, really hard.

    The Sad Ballad of Bentonville...and Bubugao

    What happens when any major listed corporation stops growing? The hounds begin braying for blood. The takeover artists and hedge fund types move in. If you want to look into the Wal-Mart's future - or the future of any major retailer shackled to a stagnant business model - look at what happened to Sears. Store closings. Games with intellectual property. Facelifts. And then the vultures move in.

    Personally, I'm ambivalent about Wal*Mart. I get a better experience at other retailers for about the same price, so when I am back in the U.S., I go to Target, Costco, Barnes & Noble, and the Apple Store.

    But I feel a bit sad for the company. After all of its promise, after all of the superlatives, the hyperbole, the hope, and the fear, uncertainty, and doubt, the company has peaked, and it's going to be a long, ugly downhill run.

    Living in China, one need only look at the host of companies battling each other to offer lower and lower prices, be they retailers, electronics manufacturers, or even online auctioneers, and see fodder for the financial carrion-birds. It is painfully clear that a lot of wealth is set to be destroyed as China's business leaders learn that a race for the basement means your company is pointing straight down at the ground.

    September 29, 2007

    Cross-post: Pulp Fiction for Guys, or My Guilty Pleasure

    Back in the Hutong 
    Dealing with the RSS Nightmare 
    1945 hrs.

    When I was growing up, I always equated pulp fiction with Harlequin romances and other, similar examples of the type of fiction my mom - only somewhat despairingly - called "bodice-rippers." This was stuff to be avoided, good for little more than some low-brow titillation.

    Then, when I went to college, I stumbled upon a book series called "The Brotherhood of War" by an author named W.E.B. Griffin. The book I picked up, The Lieutenants, was the first in the series and had the name of somebody I respected on the cover heartily endorsing it. For the price of a paperback - and being in the need of some cheap amusement - I figured it was worth a try.

    A quarter of a century and over two dozen books (in four series) later, I can comfortably say I'm hooked.

    The books (W.E.B. Griffin is a pen name, the author is actually William E. Butterworth III) are essentially an easy-to-read form of historical fiction, deftly mixing actual events, historic figures, and a continuing cast of main characters who are usually aggregates of real people, whom Butterworth usually either knew personally or second-hand. Providing a dual-focus on the lives of the characters (the heroes are either career military, police, intelligence, or some combination thereof, and often independently wealthy) and the events both large and small, the narrative rips along, assuring that one of the books can easily be devoured in a single day.

    And it's great stuff, filled with well-researched detail and highly likeable (and, in many cased, thoroughly detestable) characters. I have to say, after reading a couple of dozen of the books I'm starting to see some fairly common threads, but most of Butterworth's characters are fun to read about, and the opportunity to read about forgotten chunks of 20th Century History from the eyes of the participants is just too good to miss.

    "The Brotherhood of War" series, for example, follows the careers of a half-dozen U.S. Army officers from the rout at Kasserine Pass in 1942 through the raid on the Hoa Loa Prison (Hanoi Hilton) nearly four decades later. In the course of the books, we get to look not only World War II, Korea, and Vietnam, but also at the occupation of Germany, Truman's forgotten (but effective) intervention in Greece in 1946, the Marshall Mission in China, the development of the helicopter, the French rout at Dien Bien Phu, the preparations of an invasion of Cuba, the creation and growth of the U.S. Army Special Forces, the Simba rebellion in the Congo, and a host of other events large and small that are of interest to history buffs and people with somewhat elevated testosterone counts.

    "The Corps" series covers a similarly-sized group of career Marine officers who are all connected by their pre-World War II service in Shanghai, then move into the Intelligence and aviation establishment when the war begins. Focused largely on the Pacific, the books were my first introduction to the "China Marines," the politics around MacArthur's headquarters that often insulated him from the truth, wartime Washington D.C., Colonel Mike Edson and the Marine Raiders, Marine intelligence, the anti-Japanese insurgency on Mindanao in the Philippines led by an unknown U.S. Army colonel named Wendell Fertig, the Australian and American coastwatchers in the South Pacific, and a host of equally obscure but incredibly fascinating events and personalities.

    "Honor Bound" is a somewhat shorter series, but focuses on a single OSS mission in World War II: the effort to try to pull Argentina out of its neutral-and-leaning-toward-Nazi Germany status and into the war as one of the Allies. Apart from a superb introduction to Argentina, the book opens the door on some of the more hare-brained of the OSS' missions in World War II, and the kind of people - good and bad - it pulled in to execute them. On the balance, it makes the OSS look somewhat less like keystone cops than the successor agency, the CIA, but it gives some clues as to why Harry Truman disbanded the OSS at the end of the war.

    "Men at War" is a somewhat more thorough study of the OSS and some of the work it did both in Europe and on the Home Front in World war II.

    "Badge of Honor" is a fascinating look at the Philadelphia Police Department in the early 1970s, when former cop Frank Rizzo was in the mayor's office.

    These are Butterworth's main series. If you are a fan of Tom Clancey, Dale Brown, Herman Wouk, or Leon Uris, pick up the first title in any of these series. I can guarantee you'll enjoy the airplane read, and chances are you'll learn something to boot.

    September 18, 2007

    Cross-post: An American Library

    Fourth Ring Road, 3.5 klicks from the Siyuan Bridge, Beijing 
    Marvelling at the truly legendary traffic 
    1937 hrs.

    Not too long ago I realized that my appreciation of books went somewhat beyond what is considered normal. I guess the light went on when I designed my home office to hold 2,000 volumes, then filled it up three-quarters full as soon as it was complete.

    Hello. My name is David, and I'm a biblioholic.

    American Penguin

    Despite having what I would consider a pretty decent education, I realized that I've missed more of the classics than I care to admit. I considered the idea of going to a foreign languages bookstore here in Beijing and scooping up handfuls of Penguin Classics, but then realized that Beijing's harsh climate would ensure that by the time my five-year-old was ready to enjoy them, they'd be falling apart.

    My mom went to town on her collection of classics, and the walls of her study in Los Angeles are covered with the elegant volumes of Easton Press. Easton does a great job - the leather covers and binding, gold-edged acid-free paper, and carefully varied sizes and cover textures to give the feel of a library filled with heirlooms.

    Easton Affection

    I hovered for years on the verge of buying Easton Press volumes, but I kept holding back. The prices are high, to be certain, and that was part of it. On my last trip to visit my mom in July, thumbing through Easton's Jules Verne, I realized what was bothering me: the books are almost self-conscously beautiful, as if their primary purpose is decorative, or indeed designed to impress the visitor with the culture and literacy of the owner. They look, in short, ostentatious, the literary equivalent of the kind of Louis XIV-Whorehouse-Modern gilt-edged overwrought style that passes for decor in many of the restaurants and residences here in Beijing.

    So I was stuck between the biodegradable Penguin paperbacks on one end and the effete and expensive Easton volumes on the other.

    Just Right

    Then, about a week before my return, I was cruising the bargain racks at the front of the new Barnes & Noble at the Westside Pavilion and I came across a competitively priced volume of Philip K. Dick books. It was shrink-wrapped and had a black paper dustcover with Dick's photo and a list of the four novels included therein. I bought it, along with a handful of other necessities, took it back to my hotel room, and set it alongside the three dozen other books I'd purchased on the trip. (See? I told you I'm a biblioholic.)

    And promptly forgot it.

    When I got back to Beijing, I catalogued and shelved my new books (yes, I know), and finally came to the P.K. Dick volume. I removed the cellophane and was awestruck. The binding was cloth-covered hardcover, but the cover was flexible enough (and the volume small enough) to be held comfortably in the hand. The paper was acid-free, and there was one of those little ribbons for marking your place (no dog-ears, please.) The spline was tastefully and elegantly embossed with the author's name.

    All for the retail price of around $13.

    There's more.

    Inside the dust jacket there is a long list of volumes of American authors offered by the publisher, TheLIbrary of America (LoA), stretching from the earliest days of the colonies to more modern fare, all delivered in LoA's trademark elegant but affordable packaging. This was it. An American library for someone of modest budget that would outlive me and possibly even make it to my grandkids. What is better, LoA is a non-profit, doing their bit to keep classics in heritage formats and charging just enough to support the effort.

    If you are building or fortifying your library of American authors, there can be no better source. As for me, the P.K. Dick volume is no longer alone: I just ordered an LoA volume of Jack London and four volumes of John Steinbeck from Amazon.

    Before you buy, though, check out the LoA website for subscriptions. After ordering the entire Steinbeck library from Amazon, I found that LoA was offering it for about 85% of what I paid for them through Amazon. I harbor no resentment - the money is going to a good cause - but I'll check the website first next time.

    August 14, 2007

    Cross-post: The Disasters we don't see coming

     

    The Rift by Walter J. Williams, Harper Torch/Eos, April 4, 2002, 932 pages

    You need not read much about China to get your fill of the disasters that are waiting to befall the nation. The government is doing all it can to prepare for calamity, but what we all know down deep inside - but never talk about - is that preparation is beyond the government. If Hurricane Katrina taught us anything, it is that even the U.S. government never adequately prepares for the dangers they know.

    All the more so the dangers that lie hidden in memory.

    Life along Old Man River - the Mississippi/Missouri river complex that bisects the United States - is focused on the water. People worry about the floods that imperil the region on a painfully regular basis, and on the occasional hurricanes that roar up the river from the gulf of Mexico.

    But dormant beneath the heart of that region lies an earthquake fault which, when it last twitched in 1812, produced the most massive series of earthquakes in recorded history on the lower 48 states. Those tremors, collectively called the New Madrid earthquakes for the town in southern Missouri near the epicenter, shook a half-million square miles. At the time, the region was sparsely populated, and the human effects were moderate, but the quakes changed the course of the Mississippi River and the geography of Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

    Here is the kicker: the fault, known to geologists as the Reelfoot Rift, has a 90% chance of delivering a magnitude 7 or stronger quake in the next 50 years. And the region - the nation - is painfully unprepared for such a cataclysm.

    What would happen the next time is the subject that drives Walter Williams' superb and epic novel The Rift. Told entertainingly around the stories of characters that parallel those in Mark Twain's Huckleberry Finn,The Rift delivers a picture of the worlds most prosperous nation brought to its knees by a sucker-punch disaster it should have seen coming.

    Quakes followed by floods when levies broke, followed by toxic disasters, building collapses, nuclear emergency, systemic breakdown, civil unrest, and worse. It was a compound disaster, a confIuence of horrors that Williams made all too real. I couldn't put it down.

    And when I turned the last page, I thought about China.

    For all of the derision we heap atop the Department of Homeland Security, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the collective governments of New Orleans, Louisiana, Mississippi, and George Bush for their mishandling of the preparations for and aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, we have to believe that somehow the US government is far better prepared to alleviate human suffering in the wake of calamity that the Chinese government.

    And those of us living in China have to hope we are wrong, hope that the Chinese watched the effects of Katrina, the tsunami, and similar natural system perturbations and took some hard lessons.