Silicon Hutong

Andrew Nathan and the Olympics

In the Hutong

Learning to type while horizontal

2040 hrs.

In the thin guise of reviewing six books about China and the Olympics, Columbia University professor Andrew Nathan writes a lengthy and impassioned critique of human rights in China. Nathan holds senior positions with Human Rights Watch and Human Rights in China, and in writing in The New Republic he is preaching his gospel to a receptive congregation.

Whether you agree with Nathan's opinions or not, the essay deserves a read, if nothing else because it spells out succinctly the position of human rights advocates on the nature of government in China. Nathan sees the Chinese government as a vast, crafty conspiracy serving interested in nothing but its own survival, and he sees the Chinese people as alternately cowed by corrupt government bullies and anesthetized by the superficial trappings of economic success.

(Nathan stops just short of acknowledging that the advocates of human rights - and he, by extension - engage in their own form of reality distorting propaganda. A nice touch.)

In short, it is not a balanced appraisal, but it is one that for the sake of balance demands our attention.

Quoted: The sign of the times is no signs

In the Hutong

Wondering how gross the weather can get

1724 hrs.

In part to prevent ambush advertising around the Olympics, and in part to tone down the level of in-your-face advertising in Beijing before the Games, the city's government has taken down over 30,000 outdoor advertisements in Beijing, including some of the most high-value billboards in the country. Normandy Madden gives a good rundown in the July 7 AdvertisingAge.

George Gallate, the Asia-Pacific CEO of Euro RSCG, is not happy.

"I'm quite surprised by the amount of control they are able to do [sic]. But this degree of control is one step too far in one of the most important aspects of an open economy, the right to advertise."

Leaving aside the fact that my most recent check of political science texts fails to turn up a mention of a "right to advertise," Mr. Gallate and his fellows in the ad business are understandably tweaked: some of those billboards list out at over US$50,000 a month, which would mean just under $9,000 in agency commissions at standard rates for a single billboard.

The ban doesn't stop at billboards - it includes the light-boxes along Beijing's main thoroughfares, bus shelters, and even the ads on buses and subways. Either the ads are being sold to Olympic sponsors at highly preferential rates, or they're being held back.

A Perspective on "Karma"

In the Hutong 

Straining air through my teeth 

2111 hrs. 

There is much being written tonight about the thinking of Ms. Sharon Stone and the feelings she expressed about the earthquake in Sichuan from the red carpet in Cannes. Before we get carried away, some perspective:

No matter how intelligent or famous someone is, they cannot possibly speak intelligently about an unlimited set of subjects. We all have opinions on subjects about which we know little, and for better or worse we venture our incompletely-informed points of view on a far wider range of subjects than we should. 

Usually, there is nothing wrong with that - for most of us, it gives us a chance to venture our opinions, have them shot down for very good reasons, and walk away having learned more about a subject. Not to mention had a good conversation (face-to-face, in a forum, or in a blog) in the process. 

For someone in the public eye, that kind of casual "hypothesis testing" tends to be a bit more problematic. It gets very easy to step in doo-doo, so usually they avoid it.

Much to the chagrin of the many people whose livelihoods depend on her continued popularity, Ms. Stone has stepped (some would say "leapt") into some very deep doo-doo.

I would venture to say that any religious leader - including the one she apparently deeply admires - or any true humanitarian would take her aside and inform her that whatever her opinions might be on Asian politics, her remarks were a blight not only on herself, her industry, and her cause, but on humanity. I daresay that in the interest of her own karma, her soul, or her own peace of mind they would counsel her to apologize, and to reach out with humility and take all reasonable steps to help ease some of the suffering of those she dismissed so flippantly. 

But that's not the larger issue.

What is truly important for us to remember is that there are - and will continue to be - people in the public eye who will speak out on issues related to China despite knowing very little or nothing of what they speak. Until they, or the world's public at large, know better, this will continue. 

There are, therefore, two correct responses to this situation:

1. Pointedly ignore Ms. Stone and others like her; or

2. Set out to clarify the record. 

I would never defend Ms. Stone and what she said. Personally, I find every word of her diatribe, the setting, and the political convictions that underlie it, utterly detestable. 

But by attacking her personally we miss an opportunity to debate the point. 

And the debate is what is important. Not the source of the opinion that begets it.

BOCOG's Edict to the Media

The Lanai in the Treetops
Grateful that the Fort DeRussy disco has quieted down
2153 hrs.

Among my vacation reads is BOCOG's guide for the foreign media covering the Olympics.

Admittedly, it's not quite a gripping as the rest of the stack of books I picked up while over here, but it provides some interesting clues about what we are going to see pumped out of Beijing this summer.

The entire 47mb tome can be downloaded from BOCOG by clicking the appropriate link on the press release page, if you're interested. Otherwise I'll be posting some thoughts once I slog though it.

A Tale of Two Actresses

In the Hutong
In search of a pain reliever
2027 hrs.

Whatever you may think about the relative merits of entertainers leaping from the screen and onto the world stage, we were treated this week to a profound contrast in the styles and approaches of two young actresses.

Exhibit A is Marion Cotillard, the 32-year-old French actress who won the Academy Award for Best Actress a little over a week ago for her apparently inspired performance as Edith Piaf (yes, I too am a philistine and had to Google it) in La Vie en Rose. In an interview from a year ago broadcast on a French website, she proclaimed that the 9/11 attacks were a hoax manufactured by the US government for political ends, and that the twin towers were demolished because they were obsolete.

Without supporting or debating the veracity of Ms. Cotillard's claims, suffice to say that we here in the Hutong appreciate a good conspiracy theory in the same way we appreciate good science fiction - great stuff with which to tickle the frontal lobes, maybe even ask a few hard questions. But as most bloggers learn fairly quickly, when one takes a public stand that is in direct opposition to popular perception, one had best be very, very sure of one's facts and be prepared to support one's stand through effort and action. Sadly, Ms. Cotillard goes no further than voicing an opinion that begs for support.

Exhibit B is Angelina Jolie, also 32, also an Oscar winner (Best Supporting Actress for 1999's Girl, Interrupted) who in her capacity as goodwill ambassador for the United Nations High Commission on Refugees decided that rather than snuggle up to the armchair activist crowd, she'd hop on a plane and head for Iraq and see what was going on. From her Thursday op/ed in the Washington Post:

"My visit left me even more deeply convinced that we not only have a moral obligation to help displaced Iraqi families, but also a serious, long-term, national security interest in ending this crisis."

She continues:

"As for the question of whether the surge is working, I can only state what I witnessed: U.N. staff and those of non-governmental organizations seem to feel they have the right set of circumstances to attempt to scale up their programs. And when I asked the troops if they wanted to go home as soon as possible, they said that they miss home but feel invested in Iraq. They have lost many friends and want to be a part fo the humanitarian progress they now feel is possible."

Her conclusions are hardly those of an expert, and her focus is exclusively on the issue of the 2.5 million Iraqi refugees for whom she seeks repatriation. More than one pundit has questioned her qualifications to speak on behalf of all of the troops deployed in Iraq. Nonetheless, they are startling because they come from an unexpected source, and because of the inevitable reverberations they will send through celebrity salons on both coasts - not least the circles in which she and husband Brad Pitt circulate.

(For the record, I don't feel qualified to make a call on Iraq either way, so I won't.)

Again, leave aside your own opinions on the specific matters at hand. To me what is germane is the difference in approach. Two young women, each given the opportunity because of fame earned on the screen to voice their opinions on larger matters to their audiences, chose to make use of their bully pulpits in incredibly different ways. One chose to make the kind of flippant, uninformed remark more appropriate to a conversation with close friends. The other chose to take the time and risk to journey to someplace she could learn more, then share her thoughts and findings - whatever they're worth - with others.

Regardless of what you may think about Ms. Jolie, her motivations, the appropriateness of her remarks, or her qualifications to even make them, you must applaud her quest to learn a little something of the subject before volunteering so public an opinion.

A wise old sergeant once told me: "Wolf, opinions are like a**holes: everyone's got one, and they all stink."

The only way I would dare to correct that is to say that the more informed your opinion, the less it stinks. That is the lesson I will take from Ms. Cotillard and Ms. Jolie.

Internet or eSludge?

Jingshun Road, inbound.
Any bets on the first sandstorm?
1028 hrs.

Living in China one gets so used to long lead times for web pages to load and email to download that when the Internet really slows down you don't trust your own senses. You sort of think to yourself, you know, the Internet is really slow today. Or maybe I just drank too much coffee.

But when the CTO of one of my clients grabbed my arm the other day and ask me if I've noticed that the Internet in China had slowed considerably lately, I had all the confirmation I needed that the issue had nothing to do with caffeine-induced impatience. The net IS slower, and not just with overseas connections.

There could be several explanations for this, some quite sinister, like "they're upgrading the GFW." (Part of the joy of living in China is that government conspiracy theorists who would be regarded as crackpots anywhere else tend to start sounding like realists here. It doesn't mean they're right about things, just that people actually have to consider what they are saying before discarding it as paranoia.)

But there are a lot of things going on in and around Beijing that could be contributing to this: network upgrades, Olympic-related projects, construction cutting cables.

Or, indeed, more careful and deliberate scrutiny of the Internet in the weeks ahead of the coming opening of the 11th National People's Congress.

Either way, it's making surfing more painful than it has been in years.

I want my VPN...

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Heaven

In the Hutong
Asking for a "do-over" for my CNY break
1035 hrs

This morning brings us another noble but empty gesture in the long history of political activism in Hollywood.

I regard Steven Spielberg as as one of the greatest filmmakers in the history of the craft, a fine humanitarian, and, really, one of the good guys. I understand what motivated him to turn down the invitation of the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games to join Zhang Yimou's team charged with creating the opening and closing ceremonies for the Olympics. I applaud him for following his conscience in the matter.

At the same time, I cannot help but wonder if his gesture, however noble the intent, will do any real good.

A Little Trouble with Big China

If there is a single lesson to be drawn from history, it is that the Chinese government has a passive-aggressive streak that is both wide and deep. Public efforts by governments, organizations, or individuals from outside of China to coerce or embarrass Beijing into a policy change on matters either foreign or domestic do not work. Instead, they consistently provoke a visceral negative response that is often seen by outsiders as disproportionate or even extreme.

There are cultural, historical, and political reasons for this. One need only review with a measure of empathy the past two centuries of China's international relations, its serial humiliations at the hands of the European powers, Japan, Russia, the United States and even, briefly, Vietnam to understand why no Chinese leader, government, or party could be seen to cave to a foreign demand.

And it is not that the Party will not stand for it - the Chinese people will not. A little time in Internet chat rooms in China or actually speaking to people here would tell you as much.

None of this, of course, a justification of unconscionable policy - a history of conquest and oppression or a national or cultural inferiority complex does not excuse bad behavior in any form.

But it calls into question the competence - or sincerity - of self-appointed diplomats who ostensibly set out to change such behavior when they do so without considering the medium, the messenger, and the delivery as carefully as they do message. Failing to do so may make good copy, but it does not lay the groundwork for change.

The Spielberg Ultimatum

For the sake of argument, let us grant Mr. Spielberg, Mia Farrow, and the other well-meaning luminaries of the Save Darfur Coalition the highly questionable assertion that the warlords in Khartoum would play the lickspittle toadies and do whatever Chinese diplomats told them to do.

Building the necessary consensus within the Chinese government and among Chinese policy-makers in order to get China's envoys to issue those orders requires navigating not only the currents of international relations, but more critically the byzantine politics of the Communist Party and the Chinese government.

Either Mr. Spielberg, Ms. Farrow, and the Save Darfur Coalition do not know any of this - which calls into question their competence as activists and public advocates - or they are ignoring it, which makes them insincere and suggests other motives are at work. I believe in these people, so I think the problem is the former.

Mr. Spielberg certainly deserves credit for making an effort: for sending a letter (publicly - oops) to Hu Jintao; for stepping out of his director's chair long enough to meet with China's special envoy to Sudan and the Chinese Ambassador in New York last September; and once again with diplomats in Los Angeles a few weeks ago.

Alas, Mr. Spielberg's prodigious talents as a filmmaker and his huge compassion for the suffering people of Darfur are not matched with talent in international relations. Ten months later, things are still bad in Darfur, so in Mr. Spielberg's assessment, the Chinese carry the full blame. No credit for the effort, mind you. No appreciation for efforts followed by encouragement to do more. This is Hollywood, folks. If you can't make a miracle in 10 months, you're out.

A pity, then, that the world does not work by the rules that govern filmmaking.

As a result, all of Mr. Spielberg's efforts with Beijing have come to so much less than they might have. How wonderful it would have been to have Mr. Spielberg as a genuine public ambassador, someone with credibility and real pull in China who could help make things happen. Or, indeed, to see China active in the resolution of the Darfur situation, finding out later that Mr. Spielberg and Ms. Farrow played critical roles in driving the process.

It could have worked that way. But that won't happen now. Instead, Mr. Spielberg has slammed the door on China.

And, rather than rethink their position, the Chinese will certainly return the favor. In fact, it is entirely possible that Mr. Spielberg's gesture will undo much or all of the good that has been done to date.

The Third Way

It is useful to remember that the implicit in the concept of diplomacy - whether conducted by governments or activists - is the idea that reaching a mutually agreeable outcome need not entail either appeasement or coercion.

Making strident pronouncements and issuing public ultimata is as odious - and, ultimately, as ineffective - as being nice to the big dragon (or bear, or falcon) and hoping that it will do what you want. Effective diplomacy demands determination, but it also requires tact.

I am a great admirer of Mr. Spielberg, Ms. Farrow, George Clooney, Don Cheadle, and many of the people involved with the Save Darfur Coalition. I sincerely hope they understand that if things are worse there now than they were a year ago, perhaps a change in tactics is in order, because pumping up the volume is certain not to work, despite the great hopes of those good people to the contrary.

And I sincerely hope that whoever replaces Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, Dr. Rice, and Mr. Gates next November understands that as well.

For the sake of the people of Darfur.

The Talent Gap

In the Hutong
Watching Clint Eastwood in "Bronco Billy"
1803 hrs.

World Bank president Robert Zoellick told a group of reporters in Beijing yesterday that, while China has plenty of money, what it lacks is is the expertise to deal with its problems.

He wasn't kidding.

The single largest constraint on the growth of companies in China is a lack of talent. China is lacking adequate pilots to fly its planes, managers to lead its enterprises, and out-of-the-box types to drive its innovative and creative industries.

What holds true at the micro level holds is but a reflection of a broader national problem. The long-term growth of the world's most populous nation is more threatened by its yawning talent gap than by any other single factor.

Long term, the answer is education. But in the near and medium term, China will have to rely on a growing force of imported talent to keep the economy expanding, particularly in the high-value-added industries it needs so badly to develop before the world's youngest nation becomes the world's oldest.

China's Hobby Renaissance

In the Hutong
Minding the store
2018 hrs.

One of the profound trends that is taking place across China today that I haven't seen anybody pick up on is the rebirth of hobbies.

For much of China's history, hobbies have been limited to a tiny elite with a lot of extra time on their hands. Most hobbies were cultural in nature (brush painting, collecting, gardening), but some in the merchant and mandarin classes had some eclectic interests (I'm speaking of the non-prurient variety, here. This is a family blog.) Hobbies, in other words, were not a part of China's mainstream culture, and those that were - kite flying, bird raising, calligraphy - were considered by most Chinese to be something for old folks.

That has all begun to change over the past decade. Growing numbers of Chinese not only have the leisure time to pursue activities outside of work, family, and school, they also have the financial wherewithal to pursue their newfound avocations. Media are carrying more stories about hobbies, and the Internet makes information about their choice of hobbies readily accessible.

What is interesting about this is that hobbies create a new class of consumer for goods and services already available, and create entirely new markets for products that were never of much interest before.

Some examples:

• For the first time, it is possible to obtain a civil pilot's license as a non-professional, and to purchase and own an aircraft for private use.

• Collecting militaria and military uniforms is an increasingly popular hobby among a startlingly diverse group of collectors, most of whom network online. And they're not only buying Chinese items - they're collecting from overseas as well, either via eBay or as a part of their travels.

• Bicycling used to be about transportation in China, not recreation. No longer. Manufacturers from Giant to Trek have realized that a growing number of Chinese who ride to work in cars, busses, or trains want back on their bikes, either for exercise, competition, or adventure.

• A growing number of Chinese are taking up SCUBA diving, despite the fact that few Chinese have ever even had swimming lessons. International organizations like PADI, the British Sub-Aqua club, and NAUI are setting up representation in China to work with the Chinese Underwater Association.

• Outdoor activities generally are growing incredibly fast. Skiing, hiking, camping - all sports popular overseas but with little history in China - are growing quickly. Outside Magazine's China edition is now up to 200 pages per month, printed on what one reader described as "gorgeous, thick, glossy paper." North Face, Sony, and Motorola are but a few of the advertisers who are either reaching out to the lifestyle or who are producing products that appeal to the specific hobbies Outside covers.

Here is a simple truth: if there is a hobby somewhere, somebody in China is practicing it, and the numbers are probably growing.

Some of the other hobbies that are showing early signs of major growth:

• Gardening, both indoor and outdoor, is on the rise as more people buy homes and discover the value (both physical and therapeutic) of having plants in and around the home. The biggest issue here - knowledge, especially in the care and feeding of house plants.

• Salt water and fresh water aquariums are also growing in popularity in part because of feng-shui, and in part because the sound of the pump and the fish is so soothing.

• Scrapbooking, as a nation of people cut off from the memorabilia of their past by the paroxysms of the 20th century seeks to recapture and preserve what is left, and what they are creating now.

• Collecting generally is big, and if Hong Kong has proven anything, it is that Chinese are avid collectors. Almost any type of collecting is growing except for stamp and coin collecting, which many seem to see as old or passe. (At the same time, those who are collecting stamps and coins have more money to spend, and so the hobby will grow in real dollar terms for some time, even as the new generation eschews it.)

• Photography, which many are discovering through their cell phones, and which a growing number seek to step into more "pro-sumer" equipment.

• In keeping with the switch of bicycle from transportation tool to recreational gear, cars and motorcycles are heading that way as well. In particular, after-market performance parts, body kits, finishes, and the like are growing quickly. We're seeing the first modified cars on Beijing's freeways, and even though the customized motorcycles tend to be limited to the CJ 750 (the BMW R71 in disguise), can choppers be far behind?

Watch for this trend to grow in importance over the next five years, and to begin to change the nature of several industries.

The question each of us needs to ask is this: how are China's hobbyists going to change our business?

Forget the Great Firewall

The Airport Expressway, Beijing
Heading to my appointment at NBC
0931 hrs.

Sitting here prepping for an interview at the NBC bureau, I've realized that our metaphors are not keeping up with the time.

Bear with me.

The expression "Great Firewall of China" originated in the mid-1990s, when China's government was attempting to create an alternate Internet that was walled off from the rest of the world with the exception of a few select access points. Back then, it was fairly descriptive.

Today, however, the Internet in China is largely integrated into that of the rest of the world, with specific, increasingly pinpointed sites and services (Wikipedia, the BBC, some porn, and lately some RSS feeds) walled off from access.

It's not an ideal situation, but it is one far different than the one that a cute metaphor like "Great Firewall" conjures up.

It would be far more accurate to talk about "Checkpoint China," an image that conjures up a flow of traffic going in and out of the country, with restrictions being far more targeted than the kind of URL and keyword profiling that we used to have to deal with in the past.

I know, it may sound like a lot of semantics, but words are important. So many of us here in China complain when people outside of the country have outdated or inaccurate views on China. If we use inaccurate, inapt catchprases just because they sound good on the tongue, not only are we propagating the wrong impression, we are setting the rest of the world up to take actions vis-a-vis China that would be inappropriate and wrong.

I don't know about anyone else, but from my home, my office and public access points around Beijing, I can get onto 98% of the sites I want to reach at any given time, and its a lot better now than it was five years ago.

So please - give up on the "GFW." China's Internet restrictions are much more about neo-Confucian paternalists ("Net Nanny") and increasingly selective filtering ("Checkpoint China") than a general effort to keep the Internet away.