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February 14, 2010



very much what n.n. taleb argues in 'the black swan': we're generally very good at seeing connections and causality in hindsight, we suck at making accurate predictions.

funnily enough, taleb uses ferguson's research into imperial bonds to prove precisely this point! seeing as ferguson probably read taleb's book, he ought to know better. his theory holds in historical hindsight, but will never accurately portray the future.


Excellent stuff, David.

I enjoy reading/listening to Ferguson even if I can't always agree with his take on things.

"...we must all acknowledge that the road to the future of China and the world will likely be paved with somewhat different ideas and institutions."

It is this uncertainty which makes for interesting and worrying times in equal measure; at this stage I feel like the future of the planet could go either way.

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